The Republicans are in deep trouble, too. If Democrats are expert at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, Republicans seem just as determined this time out to implode. Consider the following factoids from this Washington Post story:
*In Arkansas, the state’s Republican party can’t even find someone to run against Democratic Senator Mark Pryor. What is left out of the Post article is that like most Southern or boarder states, Arkansas has become increasingly Republican, although it as far as electing members of Congress and governors, it has not become as Republican as most other Southern states. Democratic seats in the South have turned over into Republican ones at a steady pace over the last two decades. The rare exceptions to that have been when an ineffective and unpopular Republican (think Lacuh Fiarcloth of North Carolina) has been challenged by an attractive and well financed challenger (think John Edwards.) But that has become increasingly rare. Arkansas had been an exception, where there are two Democratic Senators, both popular, and likely to be reelected.
*Stuart Rothenberg on the Republicans’ chances: “The math is against them. The environment is against them. The money is against them. This is one of those cycles that if you’re a Republican strategist, you just want to go into the bomb shelter.”
*Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, (R-Va.): “You have a very unhappy electorate, which is no surprise with oil at $108 a barrel, stocks down to a few thousand points, a war in Iraq with no end in sight and a president who is still very, very unpopular. He’s just killed the Republican brand.”
Update: Despite all of this, most polls show Republican presumptive nominee McCain currently running neck-in-neck in a general election run against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Of course, polls don’t mean much of anything, and even less so, so long before an actual election. But McCain might have been the Republican presidential nominee most likely to run the strongest race against Obama or Clinton. All of the talk about the Republican base staying home, while a legitimate issue, is probably vastly overstated. But no other Republican candidate has the ability to draw Independents and Democrats like McCain.
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