WP: Obama Widens Lead in Four Crucial Battleground States

From this morning’s Washington Post, mirroring the findings of polls by other news organizations:

Obama holds double-digit margins over McCain in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and carries a nine-point advantage over his Republican rival in Colorado, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

Obama’s ascendancy in these key states mirrors his growing lead in national polling. The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey put Obama at 53 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, while the daily Gallup tracking poll showed Obama holding a similar lead of 51 percent to 41 percent on Monday.

The latest polling confirms that the financial crisis and stock market crash that has gripped Wall Street and Washington over the past month has increased the importance of economic matters to voters — particularly in the industrial Midwest — and accrued almost exclusively to Obama’s benefit.

Read the entire story. All those states in 2004, Bush defeated Kerr in Colorado, and Kerry won three other tight races. In two states, Colorado and Wisconsin, the winners, Bush and Kerry, respectively, won by razor-thin margins. Quinpac has similar findings, except for larger leads by Obama. Most distressing for Republicans should be that Quinpac has Obama leading in Colorado– a state won by Republicans last time– 52% to 43%. Colorado has been trending more Democratic since the last presidential election, but not to any degree reflected in this particular presidential race.

The one battleground that McCain was doing better in than one might thing, and which has been given little notice, has been Ohio. And of course, Ohio, went for Bush last election– perhaps pointing to a longer term trend than one election result. It should be interesting to watch the next polls out from Ohio, at which time I will try and update.

James Fallows writes that Steve Schmidt has been talking the language of defeat.  

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CQ Politics: Two More Congressional Seats are in Play for Democrats

According to CQ Politics, two more congressional seats in Virginia are in reach for Democrats:

The residents of Virginia’s most populous city are in the middle of a storm of political activity. John McCain and Sarah Palin will be here Monday to rally support for the Republican presidential ticket, which is struggling to keep Virginia in the GOP column against the surging Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Virginia Beach is also the epicenter of a highly competitive House race. Republican Rep. Thelma Drake is opposed in her bid for a third term by Democrat Glenn Nye, who has worked in Iraq, Afghanistan and other global hot spots for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Drake was nearly defeated in 2006 — when the Democrats made a net gain of 30 House seats nationwide — by Democrat Phil Kellam, a politically experienced local officeholder in Virginia Beach. This year, Democrats are going in a different direction with Nye, who is seeking political office for the first time.

CQ Politics gives Drake the edge but foresees a close race, which is why we are changing the race rating to the more competitive Leans Republican from the mildly competitive Republican Favored.

Nye is seeking to overcome the historic Republican orientation of the 2nd District, which has a large military influence. Along with all of Virginia Beach, the district takes in part of Norfolk, a Democratic-leaning area adjacent to Virginia Beach that is the hometown of both candidates; part of Hampton, which is located on the southeastern end of the Virginia Peninsula; and the two counties that form Virginia’s Eastern Shore. About 70 percent of the vote comes out of Virginia Beach. President Bush took 58 percent of the district vote in the 2004 election, when Drake was first elected with 55 percent of the vote.

Though he’s a Democrat, Nye often plays down his party affiliation and emphasizes bipartisan-minded solutions to the nation’s problems.

“People are looking for results-driven, bipartisan leadership, which is why my candidacy resonates so well,” Nye said during a breakfast interview. “Focus on practical problem-solving and completely taking the emphasis off of party politics and party allegiances.”

From time to time, Nye invokes the name of Mark Warner, a popular former Virginia governor who is a shoo-in to win a Senate seat on Nov. 4, when he and Nye will be sharing a ballot. Warner worked with some members of a Republican-run legislature to close a budget gap in Virginia, and he still has strong approval ratings nearly three years after he left the governorship in January 2006.

Read the rest of the article here.

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Matt Yglesias on the Pentagon’s “Ambush”

Matt Yglesias:

“Looks like the Defense Department is getting ready to present a president-elect Obama or president-elect McCain with a tough choice, either abandon domestic spending priorities in favor of a huge and pointless hike in defense spending, or else open your administration with a politically bruising battle with the top brass:

Pentagon officials have prepared a new estimate for defense spending that is $450 billion more over the next five years than previously announced figures.

The new estimate, which the Pentagon plans to release shortly before President Bush leaves office, would serve as a marker for the new president and is meant to place pressure on him to either drastically increase the size of the defense budget or defend any reluctance to do so, according to several former senior budget officials who are close to the discussions. […]

“This is a political document,” said one former senior budget official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “It sets up the new administration immediately to have to make a decision of how to deal with the perception that they are either cutting defense or adding to it.”

As best I can tell it’s been years since anyone with influence in progressive politics tried to make a serious push to reign military spending in, but at the end of the day it’s going to be difficult to implement much of a progressive agenda without facing up to the “guns or butter” dilemma to at least some extent.”

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DOJ report about the firings of nine U.S. attorneys

I have a story out today at ABC.com about the Justice Department report on the firings of nine U.S. attorneys, which I co-wrote with my friend Justin Rood:

The Justice Department probe of the firings of nine U.S. attorneys was severely hampered by the refusal of former White House political aide Karl Rove and other White House officials to be interviewed by investigators, according to a report made public by investigators today.

Additionally, the White House refused to turn over to Justice Department investigators emails and other documents that investigators believed were crucial to uncovering the truth as to why the U.S. attorneys were fired, the report said.

Despite that lack of cooperation, investigators concluded the White House was more deeply involved in the firings of U.S. attorneys than administration officials had admitted.

Investigators found that in at least three removals, “the evidence indicates the White House was more involved than merely approving” the dismissals, as Bush administration officials “initially stated,” according to a report by the Justice Department’s Inspector General and its Office of Professional Responsibility released Monday.

Because Miers, Rove and others “refused to cooperate with our investigation, and because the White House declined to provide internal documents to us, we were unable to determine the role the White House played in these removals,” the report concluded.

Investigators said they found evidence indicating greater-than-known White House involvement in firings of U.S. attorneys in Arkansas, Missouri and New Mexico.

In Arkansas, investigators said, “the evidence shows that the White House sought to give former White House official [J. Timothy] Griffin a chance to serve as U.S. Attorney, and that both Rove and Miers supported Griffin’s appointment.”…

In Missouri, “we found evidence that the White House may have directed [former U.S. Attorney Todd P.] Graves’s removal,” the report said, over a conflict with between Graves and a U.S. senator’s office. White House lawyers had fielded complaints about Graves, and appear to have been involved in pushing his ouster, the report stated.

Rove and Miers also appear to have played a role in the firing of former New Mexico U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. “[B]oth [Rove and Miers] appear to have significant first-hand knowledge regarding Iglesias’ dismissal,” the report stated…

But investigators also said that they were stymied in getting to the bottom of Iglesias’ firing because both Rove and Miers, according to the report, “refused our request for an interview even though the White House Counsel’s office informed them both& that the Counsel’s office encouraged them to cooperate with our investigation and submit for an interview.”…

In part because Justice’s IG and OPR were unable to complete its work, Attorney General Michael Mukasey appointed a federal prosecutor to continue the probe. The IG and OPR do not have prosecutorial powers and cannot compel witnesses other than Justice Department employees to cooperate with their investigators.

But Nora R. Dannehy, the acting U.S. attorney in Connecticut, who Mukasey appointed to lead the new probe, will have those powers. Mukasey said in a statement that Dannehy would have the authority to “ultimately determine whether any prosecutable offense was committed with regard to the removal of a U.S. Attorney” and whether administration officials might have broken the law by giving misleading Congress about the firings of the federal prosecutors.

It is unclear what might happen if Dannehy, like her predecessors, seeks records from the White House she believes pertinent to her probe, only to be rebuffed once again.

Some comments: Besides Rove and Meirs refusing to be interviewed by investigators, the White House deputy counsel and another White House attorney refused to talk to investigators as well. My post from last night before the report came out appears to be somewhat prescient– or perhaps my sources are just good.

And lest we forget, the politicization at Justice did not begin or end with the firings of just U.S. attorneys.

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Exclusive: Bush appointees attempted to thwart US Attorney Probe

A report to be made public tomorrow morning by the Justice Department detailing findings of its investigation into the firings of nine U.S. attorneys will say that the efforts of investigators were severely stymied in large part by the lack of cooperation by some Bush administration officials and others outside the Department, according to sources who have seen the report.

The investigation was conducted jointly by the Justice Department’s Inspector General (IG) and the Department’s Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR.) Both of those internal watchdogs have no potential prosecutorial power, but can make recommendations that career prosecutors take up their work after they finish their final report. It is unclear whether Attorney General Michael Mukasey will do so.

Despite the fact that its efforts were stymied in part by non-cooperation by witnesses, the report will say- not much of a surprise-that several of the firings were due to the politicization of the Justice Department by Bush administration appointees and that the White House played a role in some of them. Investigators did attempt to do as thorough job as possible in investigating the White House’s role in the firings and were assisted by being able to review some confidential White House emails that the White House had been withholding from Congress.

The report might also touch on efforts by senior Justice Department officials to intimidate several of the fired U.S. attorneys from talking to the press or testifying to Congress about their firings, according to five people interviewed by investigators– including three former U.S. attorneys. (Only one former U.S. attorney, Bud Cummins of Little Rock, would say this for the record. And I should aslo qualify what I just wrote regarding the intimidation issue that I am basing what I say in this one instance based on witnesses to the investigation, rather than to anyone who has read the report.)

The lack of cooperation by some former Bush administration officials with investigators probing the firings of nine U.S. attorneys is not the first time that former administration officials have thwarted investigators probing the politicization of the Justice Department by refusing to answer their questions.

As I first reported on the Huffington Post in August, several former political appointees of the Justice Department’s refused to answer questions posed to them by the Department’s Inspector General about the politicization of the Civil Rights Division.

As a result, a federal grand jury subpoenaed several of the former senior Justice Department attorneys to compel them to testify.

The grand jury had been investigating allegations that a former senior Bush administration appointee in the Civil Rights Division, Bradley Schlozman, gave false or misleading testimony on a variety of topics to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Sources close to the investigation identified two former Justice Department attorneys, Hans von Spakovsky, who as a former counsel to the Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights was a top aide to Schlozman, and Jason Torchinsky, who was also a Counsel to the Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights. Torchinsky was subpoenaed only as a witness in the case.

The non-cooperation by some Bush administration officials in the broader investigation into the firings of the U.S. attorneys might have thwarted some efforts by investigators to determine the entire truth about the firings. But because of that non-cooperation, according to attorneys closely following the matter, Attorney General Michael Mukasey is much more likely to allow career federal prosecutors to continue on with the work begun with the Inspector General.

Update: What to look for tomorrow: Apparently, the Inspector General and OPR want a prosecutor with subpoena authority to continue their investigation along. That is for two reasons: The Inspector General and OPR do not have prosecutorial authority. And they have been unable to compel testimony from witnesses outside the Justice Department.

This story posted online today by the Washington Post asserts that Mukasey is likely to name a career prosecutor to continue on with the investigation. However, the story appears to be a preemptive move by senior political appointees in the Department to close down discussion of appointing a special prosecutor instead.

If the report goes into a lot of detail about involvement by White House officials in the firings– or more importantly says that there are a number of important unresolved issues about the role of White House officials or politically connected officials with ties to the White House in the firings– then the case for naming a special prosecutor would be more compelling. This leak to the Post tonight appears to be an attempt to close down that debate before the issue before anyone has even read a single page of the report.

Second update: The NYT has also since posted online a story about the forthcoming report. But unlike the Post, they do not entirely take the spin that all will be well if a career prosecutor takes over the matter of continuing on with the probe instead of a special prosecutor being named. In particular, this excerpt from the Times story is especially pertinent :

One central question is the role officials at the White House, including Mr. Rove and Ms. Miers, played in the firings. But Paul K. Charlton, who was fired as United States attorney in Arizona after clashing with supervisors in Washington over a number of policies and investigations, said he was concerned that the inspector general’s limited jurisdiction and the White House’s refusal to turn over key records might have stymied the investigation.

The inspector general and the Office of Professional Responsibility, which conducted a joint investigation, have kept their findings under tight guard before the public release, declining to discuss any details with central players in the investigation or their lawyers. “It’s been a lockdown,” one defense lawyer said.

To look for tomorrow as the day progresses: What Rep. John Conyers (D-Mi.), the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and Sen. Patrick Leahy, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, have to say about Mukasey most likely not naming a special prosecutor.

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First Tracking Polls since debate show Obama’s lead growing

According to the first tracking polls available since the presidential debate Friday evening, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain continues to grow. According to TPM Election Central, Gallup has Obama up 50% to McCain’s 42%. Yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 49% to Obama’s 44%.

Rausmasse has Obama at 50% to McCain’s 44%– no change since yesterday.

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Gonzales still on attack against James Comey

Thanks to other journalists and bloggers, we are now learning additional details to my story posted online at the Atlantic that it was President Bush who personally directed Alberto Gonzales and then-White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card to make their now famous visit to then-Attorney General John Ashcrooft’s hospital room in an attempt to have Ashcroft overrule his own deputy attorney general’s conclusion that the Bush administration’s warantless surveillance program was being conducted outside the law.

Via Emptywheel, aka Marcy Wheeler, we learn of an AP report that Gonzales continues to attack Comey for saying that he believed that Gonzales’ and Card’s hospital visit was highly inappropriate.

Via Marcy, we learn that the AP reported on Sept. 2 that Gonzales lawyer, George TerwilligerIII, made public a memo defending Gonzales against charges by Comey that when Gonzales and Card visited Ashcroft’s hospital room, they were “trying to take advantage of a six man.” Ashcroft was in fact in intensive care at the time, heavily medicated, and recovering from surgery in which his gall bladder had been removed.

According to Terwilliger, such criticism by Comey was “demonstrably hyper-inflated rhetoric without basis in fact.” As to Comey’s own presence in Ashcroft’s hospital room, Terwilliger claims that Comey was inappropriately “seeking to interpose himself between the president and a high-level official communication to his attorney general on a vital of national security.”

The allegations by Terwilliger appear to be baseless in that Comey did nothing to stop either Gonzales or Card from saying their piece. Moreover, after refusing to do what Card and Gonzales wanted him to do, Ashcroft made it clear that due to his still being hospitalized, he considered Comey for all intents and purposes as acting Attorny General to have assumed all the responsibilities and duties of the Attorney General. Instead of being in way of Card and Gonzales making their case to the Attorney General, James Comey was on that particular day, in fact as designated by Ashcroft, the Attorney General of the United States– the very person that Terwilliger says Comey was attempting to prevent Gonzales from making make his case to.

Interestingly, Terwilliger’s comments are a reversal of what his client has previously said. According to Barton Gellman’s book on Cheney, The Angler, “[W]hen John Ashcroft returned to health… Ashcroft and Comey paid a call to the White House counsel [Gonzales at the time].. Gonzales apologized for the hospital visit, `I never should have done that,’ he reportedly told the attorney general, `I’m very sorry.’” If Gellman’s account is correct, it appears that that apology has been withdraw.

Related stories by Murray Waas:

Murray Waas, “A U.S. Attorney’s Story,” the Atlantic, April 20, 2009.

Murray Waas and Justin Rood, “White House Involved in U.S. Attorney Firings,” ABC News, Sept.29, 2008.

Murray Waas, “What Did Bush Tell Gonzalez,” the Atlantic, Sept. 26, 2008.

Murray Waas, “The Case of the Gonzales Notes,” the Atlantic, Sept. 26, 2008.

Murray Waas and Anna Schecter, “Bush White House Pushed Grant for Former Staffer,” ABC News, June 24, 2008.

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27newman5-650.jpg

He “always wore his fame lightly, his beauty too.”

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“We were there on behalf of the President of the United States”

It’s good to finally shed some light on the issue.  Thanks to Zachary Roth of TPM and Johanna Neumann of the LAT for the video. 

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DOJ investigating Gonzales for allegedly creating fictitious notes

New story out today at the Atlantic:

The Justice Department is investigating whether former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales created a set of fictitious notes so that President Bush would have a rationale for reauthorizing his warrantless eavesdropping program, according to sources close to the investigation.

 

Related story:

What Did Bush Tell Gonzales?

Sources say Alberto Gonzales now claims that President Bush personally directed him to John Ashcroft’s hospital room in the infamous wiretap renewal incident. By Murray Waas

President Bush reauthorized the surveillance program on March 11, 2004, one day after the hospitalized Attorney General John Ashcroft refused to sign a certification saying that the program was legal and could therefore continue.

In reauthorizing the surveillance program over the objections of his own Justice Department, President Bush later claimed to have relied on notes made by Gonzales about a meeting that had taken place the day before (March 10), in which Gonzales and Vice President Cheney had met with eight congressional leaders—also known as the “Gang of Eight”—who receive briefings about covert intelligence programs. According to Gonzales’s notes, the congressional leaders had said in the meeting that they wanted the surveillance program to continue despite the attorney general’s refusal to certify that it was legal.

But four of the congressional leaders present at the meeting say that’s not true; they never encouraged the White House to sidestep the objections of the attorney general and continue the program without his approval.

Investigators are skeptical of the notes because Gonzales did not write them until days after the meeting with the congressional leaders, and he wrote them after both Bush and Gonzales had together signed a reauthorization of the surveillance program.

Gonzales, who was White House counsel at the time he met with the congressional leaders, has told investigators working for the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General that President Bush personally directed him to write the notes so that he could “memorialize” what the legislators had told him, according to a report made public by the Inspector General’s Office on September 2 and sources close to the investigation.

It is unclear whether it was before the March 10 meeting that Bush directed Gonzales to write the notes, or after the meeting occurred. The White House declined to comment for this story. An attorney for Gonzales, George J. Terwilliger III, himself a former deputy attorney general, declined to comment as well.

The timing of when Bush directed Gonzales to write the notes is important: investigators say the fact that they were written after both the meeting and the reauthorization of the program might indicate that they were written in order to provide an after-the-fact justification for the signing of the reauthorization—and that that timing might have given Gonzales a motive to lie in the notes.

Stanley Brand, a Washington attorney who specializes in representing executive branch officials under investigation, said in an interview: “Why would you want someone to take notes of a meeting days after the fact? If you wanted your notes to stand up, they are going to be more credible if you took them at the meeting itself or shortly after it occurred. Any reputable lawyer would want to write them as soon as possible.”

When the notes were written and when the president directed Gonzales to write them is “extraordinarily relevant and would allow a person to draw a reasonable inference … that something funny was going on.” An investigating body, or a jury, Brand said, might “infer there was a conspiracy afoot to obstruct with or without the participation of the president.”…

To read the whole thing, click here. More later…

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