Wicker v. Musgrove

In the reddest of red states, is it possible that a Democrat will win? Two interesting things about this Mississippi race: One, Wicker, the Republican is, technically an incumbent. The power of incumbency even for a short period of time is a powerful advantage.

But what could win this race for the Democrats and former Governor Musgrove is not just the obvious problems that Republicans are facing, and that Musgrove himself is a former governor, but that turnout among African-Americans is going to be high if, as it almost certain to be the case, Obama is the Democratic nominee for President. Some 36% of voters in Mississippi are African-Americans.

A high turn out for Obama could be decisive in a Musgrove victory while a victory for Obama in the deepest of deep South states still seems quite improbable.

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